@stupendousman @mbkriegh I think the people that have voted for him before are proving themselves to be unhinged from reality. I don't know how else to explain it. When a group of people deny what most of the rest of the country (and world) seem to accept (election results) they are in denial. Add to that their falling into conspiracies, etc, they just seem to have broken away from our shared reality.
I don't think it's moderates and independents. Trump is proving himself to be an extremeist in every way possible. I don't see moderates voting for him... it defies the idea that they are moderates. Perhaps some independents.
All that said he'll get all his previous voters. My concern is the voters Biden will lose do to his support of Israel and genocide. Currently the focus on that has been Michigan, but there are likely other areas where this will hurt him. Those voters won't go for Trump but they may not show up to support Biden.